40-Man Roster Position Player Musings
No in-depth analysis here, just some thoughts on each of the position players currently on the Red Sox 40-man roster.
Catchers
Christian Vazquez – After a couple of years of over performing his expected offensive stats, things crashed back to Earth in 2021, possibly due to the new deadened baseball keeping his “moon bombs” in the park. Needs to correct for too many lazy fly balls hit into right field. Had a huge hit in the final series of the season in Washington, then had the walk-off home run in the ALDS to salvage his year. He has one year left on his contract, and with the numerous trade rumors over the past two years, plus the Miami Herald reporting the Red Sox nearly traded for Jacob Stallings in November, it seems clear the team is on the lookout for a long-term catching option.
Kevin Plawecki – Masterful job catching Eovaldi, along with much better expected and actual offensive stats than Vazquez this season, led to an increased role as the season advanced. Throwing limitations seemingly limit his upside as a regular catcher, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he started more than the 40 game he did this year if there are no changes to the catching spot before the season.
Connor Wong – Unfortunately, he only ended up with 222 PA this season while dealing with a hamstring injury and MLB taxi squad duties. Ended the year on a blazing hot streak over the final month and a half, hitting .337 with 6 2B and 6 HR in his last 23 games. Seems like his defense has improved immensely since joining the organization. A heavy workload in Worcester next year before replacing Plawecki as the second catcher in 2023 seems like a path we may be heading down.
Ronaldo Hernandez – After a slow start, he hit like a maniac in July, August, and September. .326 with 23 2B and 10 HR in his final 63 games. Comes to the plate to swing freely, but can really unload on the ball. Defense is fringe at best, but he does have a good arm. Should be part of a fun tandem in Worcester with Wong, and I’d presume he will get a lot of at-bats even on days when he is not the starting catcher.
Infielders
Xander Bogaerts – A deeper dive from me into Bogaerts here. One year of control remains, he holds a no-trade clause, and Carlos Correa and Trevor Story still loom for the post-lockout frenzy.
Christian Arroyo – Nice secondary player who plays an excellent second base. Like at his other stops, it’s now our time to wonder if there will always be some injury that derails his advancement. Second base is obviously a place the team could upgrade later this winter, but if they go in another direction, I’d be fine opening up with Arroyo as the starter there.
Bobby Dalbec – Got insanely hot from August 8 to September 21. Before that, it was miserable and looked like he was on the verge of losing his job to Arroyo, who got hurt in his first game at first base, and then Franchy Cordero, as Dalbec started blasting away. His in-game power is as elite as it gets, but how much he can get to is where his value hinges. Much like the case with Arroyo, I have no problem going into 2022 with him as the starting first baseman. However, with Triston Casas on the horizon, does Dalbec’s ultimate value to the team come in the form of a trade piece, especially if there is a Kyle Schwarber reunion?
Rafael Devers – It’s real shitty that Devers doesn’t have a long-term extension by now. Hopefully one gets done in spring training.
Jeter Downs – Actually held his own early on before his season became unglued. Lost his mechanics, swung at everything, spent the summer not being able to buy a hit. Played shortstop better than expected, but the story here seems to be a player that was pushed to Triple-A too quickly and was one of the players most hurt by the lost Covid season. The tools and upside are still there, but now there is a bigger question as to if he’ll reach them. You have to imagine no player is going to get more out of an offseason mental reset than him. Impossible to guess if come next July we’ll be clamoring for his MLB debut, or wondering what the heck happened.
Jonathan Arauz – Did not hit as well in Worcester as I was expecting. Still young, he will be shuttled back and forth between Worcester and Boston for the next couple of years while trying to earn a full time bench utility role.
Hudson Potts – Didn’t make his season debut until June and was pretty much overwhelmed until a decent final 20 games. Still on the younger side, 92% of his PA came against older pitchers. His 40-man roster spot seems very shaky as the Sox make additions over the next few months.
DH and Outfielders
J.D. Martinez – After absolutely murdering the ball in April, he spent much of the rest of the season as merely a good hitter. He turned it back on with a very good September and reminded everyone what a monster he can be in the playoffs, even while dealing with his freak ankle injury. Out of necessity, he ended up playing way too much outfield, and those days need to be over (OPS as DH .945 OPS, as OF .612).
Jackie Bradley Jr. – The timing of this trade, moments before an extended lockout, made this a much bigger deal than what it was as it concerns JBJ. This was more about using financial muscle to acquire Alex Binelas (and David Hamilton), plus thinking Hunter Renfroe is at minimum replaceable, if not upgradable. This move, along with the James Paxton contract, were strong signals that the Red Sox are going to be spenders in the post-lockout frenzy. JBJ has struggled with offspeed and breaking balls for years, and last year he couldn’t hit a fastball either, which created one of the worst offensive seasons imaginable. Seiya Suzuki is a natural target for right field, and Schwarber could certainly cut back JBJ’s opportunity. The path to JBJ getting the biggest chance to play would probably be the Red Sox signing Correa or Story and just rolling with JBJ’s defense in RF out of the gate. I’d place the odds as pretty even between being a bench player, not on the team, and starting most of the time.
Enrique Hernandez – I think it’s extremely impressive when a new player in Boston has a poor first month, everyone is on their case, and they pull themselves up by the bootstraps and turn it around big time. A surprisingly elite center fielder and good leadoff hitter when Cora stuck with him. The Sox have him for one more season at a $7M bargain, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see both sides try to extend the relationship, which could be a path to opening up some other players for trade. What a legendary playoff heater he went on.
Alex Verdugo – Good but uneven season. Heard he was dealing with leg issues for the first part of the 2021. Excessive ground ball issues in the middle of the year really capped his upside. Blasted away in April and August, and destroyed right-handed pitching all year. He was uncharacteristically poor against lefties, and I expect that to turn around next season. All the ingredients are there for a borderline All-Star type player. Type of player you want when the lights are bright. Only 3 strikeouts in the playoffs while hitting .310 with an .835 OPS.
Jarren Duran – He made big changes heading into 2021, but there seems to be more questions now than ever on what he looks like going forward. His tweaking of his batting stance on a near daily basis at the MLB level was rather distressing. I’d imagine the best outcome would be a happy medium between his early slap hitting ways and selling out for power, but that’s easier said than done. He was fast, but his instincts in center field were as advertised – not very good. That should be improvable. Seems like he is out of the Boston picture for now and will have time in Worcester to continue ironing out his game. Like Dalbec, there is a tipping point somewhere that his value becomes more as a trade piece. But, he’s shown he’s willing to work and evolve, so there’s still plenty of upside.
Jeisson Rosario – Like Potts, he’s still on the younger side, 94% of his PA came against older pitchers. But there’s no pop in the bat, along with 51% ground balls, so it’s nearly impossible to imagine him continuing to walk at a high rate. As a legit center fielder, he will get lots of opportunities, but his hold on a 40-man spot seems weak.