It Is The 2024 Season.
I waited throughout the winter for some Red Sox transactional fireworks to inspire more writing here, but unfortunately, they never materialized. Entering the offseason, Lucas Giolito seemed like a solid bounce-back project to pair with acquiring a front-end ace, or a third piece in a multipronged rotation overhaul. Having him be the only player that the Red Sox spent more than $2 million on this winter to improve the 2024 roster was a slap in the face to every member of Red Sox Nation. The fact that his elbow exploded this spring — after his durability was one of his defining attributes — was just the cherry on top of the shit sundae we were served.
This path was not ignorance from the ownership level, they know exactly what they needed to do. Tom Werner said it plainly after the season, “You need players that have high WAR to be a winner, Raffy is a star that will be with us for a long time, but we need to complement him with other talent.”
— long hissing noise of air being let out of a balloon —
Chaim Bloom had a solid foundation put in place. He had the star prospects in the upper levels of the minor leagues. Star prospects that the team is now trumpeting as beacons of hope for the organization. This winter was time to bolster the roster with a star pitcher and depth. Instead, Bloom was fired.
We were promised that along with Craig Breslow’s overhaul of pitching development, that ownership would continue to spend money needed to be competitive, that they were “full-throttle in every possible way.” They wanted top of the rotation talent, there was talk of trading from the stockpile of elite offensive prospects for pitching.
Then there was silence from the front office.
Media availabilities seemed to evaporate in comparison to the past. Breslow made the rounds a few days prior to Winter Weekend, seemingly to soften the backlash that was awaiting them once again at MGM Springfield.
MassLive was on top of it, they reported the vault had been closed by John Henry. It was confirmed in Springfield. Payroll was being cut again.
Mike Clevinger is still available, but Jordan Montgomery’s deal with Arizona for 2/$50M last night essentially marked the conclusion of free agency.
The Red Sox opening day CBT payroll is going to be $216M, which includes $41M being paid to Giolito, Chris Sale, Eric Hosmer, and Justin Turner. The first luxury tax level is at $237M.
In the meantime, there is always the Fenway Experience™.
“We spend a lot of time trying to figure out ways to bring new fans into the park and have some tickets that are very affordable for students. We spend a lot of time talking about the experience of going to Fenway. We think our record is probably the most important thing, but there are other things that make going to Fenway a special place. And we’ve got to put a better product on the field and we know that.”
— Tom Werner
Contact Extensions
Triston Casas is the clear priority to get signed to a contract extension — it should have already been done this winter — and the Red Sox need to keep pushing through his rebuttals until something is finalized. Getting Brayan Bello locked up through two of his free agent years was a terrific appetizer, even with the terms seemingly extremely favorable for Bello. If the team gets them both locked up, the message is sent, and you hope the rest follow like dominoes.
Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Ceddanne Rafaela, Vaughn Grissom, Wilyer Abreu, and Jarren Duran are all extension candidates. Whether it be age, control, or ceiling, they seem more like swap security for team friendly contracts types. I don’t see the Red Sox blasting through the door with an overwhelming offer for any of them, at least not yet.
When Marcelo Mayer, Roman Anthony, and Kyle Teel are putting the final touches on their prospect development, that’s when the team should go hard again, pushing the Detroit/Colt Keith model of 6/$25M, with 3 team options.
Trade Watch Imminent
“We’ve been in a position to trade some of the guys on expiring contracts and bring in value that we think is going to impact our club in 2024 and beyond.”
— Craig Breslow
Alex Verdugo → out | Chris Sale → out
It will be interesting to see at what level of expediency the expiring contracts of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, Tyler O'Neill, and Nick Pivetta will be made available to teams once the season begins.
Breslow made a point when hired about how no matter what, MLB wins are the most important thing. But the organization did not spend the winter acting in such fashion, so to me, it seems likely that these players will be readily available.
We already know Jansen has been in trade discussions. It seems difficult to imagine Jansen and Martin being with the team post-trade deadline. The only question is if Breslow will now hold until late July to see how the season is playing out, or if they are both gone when the first offers that meet their requirements hit the inbox. Age and injury risk may be a factor in how long they hold on to such assets.
O'Neill was an MVP candidate in 2021, and has looked excellent this spring, so if he says healthy, he could be a target. I suppose if the Red Sox are impressed with what they’ve seen, a modest contract extension offer could happen before they go down that route.
It would be a stretch, but with a great season, Pivetta could potentially be a qualifying offer candidate, so he’s different in that regard. He seems most likely to be a last minute decision on what to do with him. A successful first few months for him would be extremely beneficial to the Red Sox on multiple fronts.
Pitching Tweaks
At the start of the season, I’m excited to track the changes in pitchers’ arsenals, including their usage, variations, and any pitches that have been added or discarded, following their offseason work with Andrew Bailey and his team. Based on everything I’ve read and heard, I’m optimistic that this group will be able to maximize the potential of the pitchers they are given to work with.
It will be especially notable how they attack left-handed batters after being annihilated by them in 2023. Last year, Red Sox pitchers had the highest home run per fly ball rate allowed and the 8th lowest strikeout rate against lefties.
The Lineup
Fangraphs has the Red Sox projected to score 794 runs this season, trailing only the Braves, Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees. Nearly every prognostication talks about how this lineup will hit and hit and hit some more. They very well could. But, aside from Devers, it feels like there is a rather large caveat attached to almost every player in the lineup.
Is Duran going to improve, or at least continue to outperform his xwOBA? Was Trevor Story’s spring training for real, and he will hit like a middle of the order talent, or is that part of his game just too eroded after years of dealing with obstacles? Does Casas ascend to the top tier of 1B bats, or does he settle in as more of an above-average performer? O'Neill had a .912 OPS in 2021, which he surrounded with seasons of .723, .621, .700, and .715. Does Yoshida’s second year look much different than his first? Does Connor Wong’s strong spring lead to an uptick in production? Can Grissom’s strong AAA metrics carry over to MLB when he’s healthy? How do the second looks at MLB arms go for Rafaela and Abreu?
It feels like we are banking on many things breaking in a positive direction. Pitching was the clear need and the whiff of this winter, but another bat with more certainty would have been quite helpful.
Projections
80-82 Fangraphs
78-84 Baseball Prospectus
77.5 Vegas’ over/under wins
Last season, the three AL wild card teams finished with 99, 90, and 89 wins.
In the NL, 84 wins got two teams into the postseason.