NOTES: Nov. 9
Hunter Renfroe and Seiya Suzuki
Renfroe has produced WARs of 2.4, 2.4, and 2.3 in his last three full seasons. 2-3 WAR is considered a solid starter and that’s what I would expect again next year. Steamer Projections forecasts a 110 wRC+ (10% better than a league average hitter) next year for Renfroe after he tied his career best at 114 this year. His defense should probably be considered average overall; 48th percentile in outfield jumps, an insane arm, but having to deal with some bad throwing decisions and aggressiveness that led to errors. MLB Trade Rumors projects him to earn $7.6M in arbitration this winter which a bit higher than I was expecting, and while he will very likely provide more value than his pay, he wouldn’t exactly be the steal he was in 2021.
Suzuki is a 27 year old superstar right fielder out of Hiroshima in Japan’s Central League. He checks all of the boxes, elite power, good athlete, strong arm, multiple Gold Gloves, and has probably been the best hitter in Japan over the last few seasons while making elite swing decisions and walking slightly more than striking out. The question will be how he handles the velocity in MLB. Whichever team’s scouts think he will handle it the best will probably be the team that signs him, publicly saying they expect him to be a solid player while privately hoping they have a new star in their lineup. Fangraphs median crowdsource projects a 4 year, $44M contract and MLBTR projects 5 years, $55M.
Rob Bradford reported today that the Red Sox have scouted Suzuki thoroughly. If Suzuki is interested in playing on the east coast, which has been an obstacle for the best Asian players recently, I would hope the Sox are strongly involved in bidding if they think he will translate well, especially if the bidding is around the prices mentioned above. Making that swap in right field would not be a tough decision in my opinion.
Justin Verlander
On opening day 2022 Verlander will be 39 years old, 18 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and will not have pitched in a game in over 600 days. He was as dominant as ever in 2018-19 and reports from this week’s workout were that he was throwing all his pitches, hitting 96 mph, and a scout said, “he’s ready.” He’s a freak, one that I’ll guess will be signing a 2-year deal with a contending team that will also need to forfeit a draft pick to sign him. I have a hard time imaging the Red Sox being his landing spot unless things go really off the rails in free agency. If Eduardo Rodrigues leaves, giving the Sox an extra draft pick, and the Sox sign one of the elite position players with a qualifying offer, does Verlander become the cherry on top while only having to surrender their fourth highest selection to sign him? A far-fetched scenario.
Luis Castillo
Castillo’s trade value is astronomical as a team trading for him will control him for the next two seasons at a cost of about $20M total. Baseball Trade Values projects him as having $68M positive surplus value over what he will be paid. For comparison, the most valuable Red Sox assets according to their formulas are Rafael Devers $57M surplus and Triston Casas $54M. If I were the Reds, I would be taking the highest offer possible for Castillo, attaching no sunken costs to him, which makes a Red Sox trade nearly unimaginable. The way the Red Sox, and I presume most other contending teams would get involved would be taking back Mike Moustakas’ contract in the deal. He is signed for 2 years with a $16M AAV. Castillo and Moustakas packaged together would put a trade more in line with what the Sox could reasonably offer in a couple of the young players such as Houck, Duran, Downs, Dalbec, etc. This also seems like an unlikely path forward.
Starting Rotation Preference
While seemingly everyone important with the Red Sox believes Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock will eventually be really good starting pitchers, at the GM meetings yesterday Chaim Bloom made the caveat that while planning this winter, “it just might not be the best alignment for our team.” I have been on that train for a while, ideally the Sox work out a 4 or 5 year deal with Eduardo Rodriguez and they round out the starting five with someone you feel good about giving you steady mid-rotation innings. Carlos Rodon is a wildcard given his medical history, but it would be real nice having Nate Eovaldi and Chris Sale being followed by Rodriguez, Jon Gray, and Nick Pivetta. Instead of Gray how about Steven Matz, Anthony DeSclafani, or even Michael Pineda?
Competitive starts, avoiding blow ups, not taxing the pen, and not having to rely on Houck and/or Whitlock in the rotation to start next year would be a priority for me. Using those two in longer relief outings, either to bridge in the middle, go after multi-inning saves, or experimenting using them as piggyback starters would all be intriguing plans. By the end of the season and in the playoffs you’re going to be running your best pitching weapons out there one after another, and there is little doubt that later in the season Houck and Whitlock would be near the front of the line starting or pitching high leverage spots.
Carlos Correa and Payroll Commitments
Last winter I predicted that this offseason the Red Sox were going to sign Trevor Story, needless to say that didn’t make a lot of sense to some people, and even a year later I don’t feel like everyone fully grasps the Sox current shortstop conundrum. But that tide seems to be turning a bit. Even today, Jon Heyman reported the Red Sox are one of the teams gauging the free agent shortstop market. I feel a bit vindicated that my prediction wasn’t totally asinine. Signing a shortstop such as Carlos Correa would certainly mean the Sox would be over the luxury tax in 2022 (pending CBA details), but even if you add the 27-year-old on a mega contract the future would still be very moldable for Bloom and co. After next season Bogaerts, Martinez, Eovaldi, Vazquez, Hernandez, Plawecki, and David Price all come off the books. You will have had another season of farm system development, another season of churning the roster, and you would most importantly have your organization pillars, Correa and Devers, in their primes and able to be built around.