Post-Soto Reboot
Here are some quick thoughts on most of the remaining major free agents. As deals materialize, deep dives will take place and opinions may shift.
Corbin Burnes – It seemed heading into this winter that he was going to get a contract that vastly cleared Fried. Not sure about that now given the market, with the Yankees reportedly preferring Fried. That levels the playing field a bit among the 1-2 free agent starters. His end of the season resurgence with strikeout rate was really just his final three starts of the year, which at least put a temporary plug in some troubling dominance trends. Can his next team make that hold up? He’s not my top preference, but it would be exciting. Lots of smoke about the Giants being the favorite here.
Max Fried – Ground ball and weak contact monster, paired with dominance that now aligns with Burnes. The arm “injury” last year was inflammation to a sensory nerve, nothing structural, and he said his MRI looked great. His slightly “down” year last year was filled with dominate stretches, including closing out the season. Mine, and presumably the Red Sox and Yankees #1 pitching target.
Alex Bregman – Nightengale says the Astros have a 6-year, $156M offer on the table, but he wants over $200M. That suuuucks. Would not do it if the plan was to blow up the entire infield and play him at 3B. If they plug him in at 2B, I still think it’s going to end up a bad contract, but I wouldn’t hate it. Obviously, it would help the Red Sox a lot over the next couple of seasons. Duran, Devers, Bregman, Casas is a hell of a way to start a lineup.
However, just the thought of the path possibly ending up being paying $200M for Bregman and then trading young position players for your pitching overhaul rather than paying for it makes me want to hurl.
Not getting Soto makes a Duran trade almost unimaginable, and I think it would be best to lock him in to CF to maximize value. If you did that, and signed Bregman to play 2B, that would leave an Abreu/Anthony pipeline in RF, and a spring training battle for LF between Campbell, Anthony and Rafaela, who should be forced to win a regular spot, if not end up a super utility player.
Pete Alonso – Just another bat I don’t love in this class, but I’m at the point where I wouldn’t complain if he was a Red Sox panic move for 5-years, $125M, and they just parked him at DH and batted him third. It would at least be fun, and doubtful a disaster like Sandoval. That said, you start tacking on years, or higher AAV, ugly.
I said it in October, and I still think it now after missing out on Soto, seeing the Adames contract, and staring Bregman and Alonso the face… it wouldn’t be the worst idea to just get a cheap, no frills right-handed O’Neill replacement and let the offense work itself out while spending nearly solely on pitching upgrades. Not trades for it, being cheap and eroding what was built up meticulously, but SPENDING for it.
Jack Flaherty – Fun fact, among free agent starting pitchers, his in-zone whiff rate and chase rates were the closest to Blake Snell in 2024. That alone will make ears perk up. Insanely good in the first half of 2024, and still good in the second half. Seems like there is even more available that a good pitching program could unlock if he stays healthy. Only heading into his age-29 season.
Anthony Santander – I’ve hardly considered him this winter because he seems like someone that is going to age poorly, he’s a poor defender and very slow, I don’t really see the fit on this team, and I don’t really see how he would be a great match for Fenway being so reliant on fly balls hit to RF. His HR/FB ballooned to 17.1% this season. Another situation where he would make the 2025 Red Sox better, but long term it doesn’t feel great and this would maybe feel like the most spending just to spend contract.
Ha-Seong Kim – A slick fielding, low power, league average hitting infielder is just not something the Red Sox need to invest in.
Jurickson Profar – Paying him coming off his career year during his age-31 season seems incredibly risky. He was GREAT last year, but in the previous 5 seasons combined he had a 94 wRC+ and 2.6 WAR. The Red Sox have maybe the best array of young position players and prospects in the game, I don’t understand what we would be doing filling a spot with Profar.
Teoscar Hernandez – Teoscar would be fun and good! The yearlong path to acquire him would be almost absurdly inefficient and gross. The Red Sox wanted Teoscar, and Teoscar wanted the Red Sox last winter. John Henry cut payroll. They still wanted to make it work. The Red Sox told him they needed to cut payroll to make it happen. Instead, Kenley remained a Red Sox player until he went home late in the season as the Red Sox were finishing at .500 and Teoscar was launching homers on his way to a championship / being a year older / making way more money than he would have signed for last year / now also costing you your second-highest draft choice and international bonus money to sign.
Walker Buehler – Risk! But I’ve always been a fan, and I’m very intrigued. Real rough 75 regular season innings this year returning from his injury, and then started the playoffs with a dud. Turn it on to pitch a dominant 10 innings to close out the post-season. If healthy, seems like a great candidate to get into the Bailey lab, an array of secondaries that need to be brought into focus, and a four-seam fastball that needs its usage slashed and corrected. Ideally a secondary addition along with a top of the rotation guy.
I really just hate the Arenado idea. I’m pleasantly surprised MassLive has reported the Red Sox seem on the periphery of Crochet talks, a massive package sent out, then having to give him a new contract doesn’t make much sense to me. Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler are absolutely tantalizing, they would cost so much, but absolutely easy to dream on. Jones has been my #1 trade target all winter, but Chandler would be right up there with him. Yorke/Priester Part 2 but on steroids? There are plenty of arms with 4-5-6 years of control I would be happy trading a lot for, but since they are so cheap on the payroll, it worked best pairing that path with Soto, but it can certainly work with pairing them with, say, Fried. I would absolutely be open to acquiring a few pitchers this winter and turning around and using Houck (or Crawford) in another deal to target a different area of the roster/system. A secondary addition could also come in the form of a mid-ration starter coming in a trade with a distressed contract, with the Sox using money to their advantage and not having to lock into a long term contract. There are some options that fit that bill now, and maybe more available as free agency musical chairs happen and teams decide to reevaluate their paths forward.